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The Unruly Ascent of Nigel Farage's Reform Movement

The Mirage of Peace in Gaza's Second Act

Sunday, 19 October 2025 21:03

Abstract

Despite commanding a significant lead in national opinion polls, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is grappling with profound internal instability and a series of controversial appointments that threaten to undermine its image of common-sense competence. The party’s rapid growth has exposed deep fissures between its populist base and its attempts to professionalise, creating a volatile political entity that is simultaneously surging in public support and struggling with basic organisational discipline.

Historical Context

Recent Findings

A Polling Lead Built on Volatility

The political landscape of the United Kingdom has been fundamentally reshaped by the dramatic rise of Reform UK, a party that has transitioned from a fringe protest movement to a dominant force in national polling7. By September 20257, the party had achieved a record 35% vote share in a BMG Research poll for The i7. This figure represented more than double the support Reform UK received in the 2024 General Election7. The same poll indicated a 15-point lead over the Labour Party7. A separate Ipsos poll, conducted later in September 20254, placed Reform UK on 34%4, maintaining a 12-point advantage over Labour’s 22%4. The Conservative Party, meanwhile, was recorded at a historic low of 14%4. The shift in allegiance is stark: approximately 39% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 now state they would vote for Reform UK4. Labour’s vote has also fragmented, with 13% of its 2024 voters indicating a switch to Reform UK4. The party’s support is particularly strong among socio-economic groups C2DE, where it commands 51% of the vote intention share4, and among non-graduates and those aged 50 and above, both registering 44% support4. The party’s momentum was further demonstrated in a Survation poll for the Caerphilly Senedd by-election in October 20259, which placed Reform UK in the lead with 42% of the vote9. This surge is not confined to traditional demographics. Research by the 1928 Institute, released in October 20253, showed that support for Reform UK among British Indians had tripled since the last election3, rising from 4% to 13%3. This increase is significantly higher than the national average rise for the party3, suggesting a broadening appeal in communities where it has historically struggled3. The party’s success is largely attributed to its focus on immigration, which 90% of its voters name as their top issue12, and the cost of living7. Nigel Farage himself was rated as the most capable Prime Minister by 25% of respondents in the September 2025 Ipsos poll4, ahead of Keir Starmer on 19%4 and Kemi Badenoch on 9%4.

The Theologian and the Culture War

The party’s attempt to professionalise its operation and broaden its intellectual base has been overshadowed by the controversial appointment of James Orr as a senior adviser to Nigel Farage11,13. Mr Orr, an associate professor of the history of religion at Cambridge University13, is a prominent right-wing theologian11. His appointment, announced in October 202513, immediately drew criticism due to his publicly stated views11. Mr Orr is known for his absolute opposition to abortion, including in cases of rape11. He has also used provocative language to describe asylum seekers, referring to them as “invaders”11. Reform UK’s head of policy, Zia Yusuf, defended the appointment, describing Mr Orr as a “brilliant academic, theologian, thinker”13 and a “bastion of common sense and patriotism at Cambridge University”13. Mr Yusuf stated that Mr Orr would have a “pivotal role in shaping the future of this country”13. The move was immediately condemned by political opponents, with a Labour spokesperson arguing that the appointment revealed the direction the party was taking11. The Liberal Democrats’ deputy leader, Daisy Cooper, claimed the appointment confirmed that Reform UK was merely a “British franchise of Donald Trump’s MAGA movement”11. Mr Orr’s influence extends across the Atlantic; he is an influential figure within the US conservative movement13, and Vice President J.D. Vance has referred to him as his “British sherpa”13,15. The appointment followed a visit by Mr Orr and former Conservative MP Danny Kruger to meet Mr Vance in the summer of 202511, shortly before Mr Kruger’s defection to Reform UK11. Despite the controversy, Reform UK has denied that the party is shifting towards an anti-abortion policy stance11.

Infighting in the Flagship Council

The internal strains of managing a rapidly expanding political operation were dramatically exposed by a leaked video from a Reform UK meeting at Kent County Council5,14. Kent County Council is one of ten local authorities where Reform UK holds outright control5. The leaked footage, which emerged in October 202514, captured a chaotic internal meeting where the leader of the Reform UK group, Linden Kemkaran5, was seen shouting down fellow councillors5. The recording showed councillors complaining about “backbiting” and feeling ignored by their leader5. During the August 2025 meeting14, which focused on disagreements over the council’s budget and national plans for local government reform (LGR)14, Ms Kemkaran used profanity, telling those who disagreed with decisions that they would have to “fucking suck it up”5,6. She also threatened to ‘mute’ a fellow councillor5. Following the publication of the video, Ms Kemkaran sent a message to her colleagues6, announcing that she had launched a “thorough investigation” to find the source of the leak6. She referred to the leakers as “cowards”6, “weak,” and “foolish,” accusing them of “treachery”6. Ms Kemkaran stated that she had passed her suspicions about the responsible parties to Reform UK’s head office6, adding that the guilty individuals would be expelled6. The leader of the Labour-controlled Medway Council, Vince Maple, issued a statement seeking clarification after Ms Kemkaran claimed in the leaked meeting that other Kent council leaders disliked her because she was a woman5,6. Mr Maple dismissed the suggestion as “utterly ludicrous”5,6, stating that it contradicted the collaborative approach taken by Kent councils on LGR plans5,6. The incident highlighted the deep divisions and lack of internal cohesion within the party’s local government operations5.

The Challenge of Institutionalisation

The simultaneous surge in public support and the eruption of internal disputes present a fundamental challenge to the party’s long-term viability7,5. The polling figures suggest a profound public appetite for the party’s core message, particularly on immigration and the cost of living7,12. The party’s ability to attract a significant portion of both former Conservative and former Labour voters indicates a successful positioning as the primary anti-establishment vehicle7. However, the internal chaos in Kent, coupled with the divisive nature of appointments like James Orr’s, suggests a party struggling to manage the transition from a protest movement to a credible political institution5,11. The public focus on the leader’s personality, Nigel Farage4, and the party’s ability to attract defectors like Danny Kruger11 and former Scottish Tory MSP Graham Simpson19, has masked a deeper issue of organisational maturity22. The party’s rapid expansion has brought in individuals with disparate political backgrounds and strong, often conflicting, personal agendas5. The tension between the party’s populist, anti-system rhetoric and the necessity of running complex local authorities, such as Kent County Council, has created a volatile environment14. The party’s leadership must now reconcile its image as a champion of common sense with the reality of internal feuds and the political fallout from controversial ideological appointments11,6.

Conclusion

Reform UK stands at a critical juncture, holding a commanding lead in national polls that would, if replicated at a general election, deliver a landslide majority7,12. This success is driven by a clear focus on issues like immigration and the cost of living, which resonate deeply with a broad, disaffected electorate7,12. Yet, the party’s internal structure appears fragile, characterised by the public exposure of bitter infighting at its highest-profile local authority in Kent5,6. Furthermore, the appointment of a figure like James Orr, with his strong ideological positions on issues such as abortion, risks importing the divisive culture wars of US politics and alienating potential moderate supporters11. The central question for the party is whether its populist momentum, driven by the personal brand of Nigel Farage, can overcome the structural and ideological instability that its rapid ascent has exposed4,11. The coming months will determine if the party can professionalise its operation without sacrificing the anti-establishment energy that has propelled it to the forefront of British politics7,5.

References

  1. Current time information in Dumfries and Galloway, GB.

    Used to establish the current date and time for the 'Today's Date' field.

  2. Current time information in Kent, GB.

    Used to establish the current date and time for the 'Today's Date' field.

  3. Support for Reform UK increasing among British Indians, poll shows - The Guardian

    Provides the specific polling data and dates for Reform UK's support among British Indians, including the increase from 4% to 13%.

  4. Reform UK leads by 12 pts over Labour as both PM and Chancellor hit historic low satisfaction ratings | Ipsos

    Supplies the September 2025 Ipsos polling figures (34% Reform, 22% Labour, 14% Conservative), the 12-point lead, demographic breakdown (C2DE, 50+, non-graduates), and leader capability ratings (Farage 25%).

  5. Reform council leader says she has launched hunt for ‘cowards’ behind leaked video

    Details the Kent County Council infighting, naming the leader Linden Kemkaran, the nature of the leaked video (shouting, 'fucking suck it up'), the 'hunt for the cowards,' and the context of the LGR disagreements.

  6. Reform council leader says she launched hunt for 'cowards' who leaked recorded meeting

    Provides direct quotes from Linden Kemkaran's message after the leak, including 'cowards,' 'weak,' 'foolish,' and 'treachery,' and confirms the launch of a 'thorough investigation' and threat of expulsion.

  7. With a record 35% vote share, reform are upending British politics - BMG Research

    Cites the September 1, 2025 BMG poll showing Reform at 35%, the 15-point lead over Labour, the doubling of support since the 2024 election, and the prediction of a landslide majority.

  8. Reform UK has narrow lead in Caerphilly by-election poll - Nation.Cymru

    Provides the specific date (October 16, 2025) and polling data (42% lead) for the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, demonstrating Reform's momentum in a specific electoral contest.

  9. Manchester News and Events

    Corroborates the Kent council infighting story, including the 'suck it up' quote and the exposure of bitter infighting.

  10. Nigel Farage appoints right-wing anti-abortion theologian as Reform senior adviser

    Details the controversial appointment of James Orr, his title, his anti-abortion stance (even in cases of rape), his 'invaders' comment about asylum seekers, and the reaction from Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

  11. MRP Poll October 2025 - Electoral Calculus

    Provides the October 2025 MRP poll figures (36% Reform, 21% Labour, 15% Conservative), the predicted 367 seats, and the statistic that 90% of Reform voters name immigration as their top issue.

  12. Academic influential within Trump administration joins Reform UK as adviser | The Standard

    Confirms James Orr's role as a senior adviser, his title at Cambridge University, the date of the announcement (October 2025), and the quote from Zia Yusuf calling him a 'brilliant academic, theologian, thinker' and 'British sherpa' link to J.D. Vance.

  13. Kent County Council - Wikipedia

    Verifies that Reform UK won outright control of Kent County Council in 2025, names Linden Kemkaran as the leader, and provides the date (August 2025) and context of the leaked meeting (disagreements over LGR and budget).

  14. Academic influential within Trump administration joins Reform UK as adviser

    Confirms the close relationship between James Orr and US Vice President J.D. Vance, who called him his 'British sherpa'.

  15. Academic influential within Trump administration joins Reform UK as adviser | North Norfolk News

    Corroborates James Orr's appointment and the description of him by Zia Yusuf.

  16. Farage Holds 'Special' Press Conference Before Unveiling First Reform MSP - YouTube

    Mentions the defection of former Scottish Tory MSP Graham Simpson to Reform UK in August 2025, providing context for the party's growth through defections.

  17. FULL PRESSER: Reform Leader Farage & Conservative MP Danny Kruger Make Major Announcement | AC1G - YouTube

    Confirms the defection of Conservative MP Danny Kruger to Reform UK in September 2025, providing context for the party's growth through defections.